Frye Stock Report

Stock Market Update - January 7, 2010

2010-01-07T22:44:00.003-05:00

Based on the hourly charts we should have another push up for the Dow.

The daily chart is showing a short term top. Money flow has topped ... and looks to move back down. This is the primary trend for the market.

Roll Tide Roll!!! Beat Texas!!!

Stock Market Update - January 5, 2010

2010-01-05T22:48:00.002-05:00

We may see some more strength in the hourly chart.

The daily chart looks overbought. The money flow has cycled back to the top. My bet is that we will see some sideways movement over the next few weeks and a seasonal bottom in March and then the market will move to higher highs ... slowly.

Roll Tide Roll .... Go Bama Go!!!

Stock Market Update - December 18, 2009

2009-12-20T22:13:00.003-05:00

Money flow is peaking and is expected to turn down at some point very soon. Also, the price indicator (green line) is moving towards its cycle low. I would expect to see some type of weakness on the hourly Dow chart near term (the daily chart confirms) but once the money flow bottoms again ... we may see both indicators move in tandem back up.

The actual money flow indicator has turned back down. Only time will tell where its going to go. With the hourly money flow at its cycle top ... we may see some weakness on the daily Dow. With the holidays here its going to be tough to try and trade the market ... my advice would be ... take the next two weeks off.

Stock Market Update - December 17, 2009

2009-12-17T22:09:00.002-05:00

Money flow has hit bottom (blue line with price chart) and price looks to be catching up (green line with price chart). Based solely on the indicators we may be close to some type of bottom or we could bounce along here. I do admit ... I thought we would see some strength based on the primary trend with the Daily money flow for the Dow (see chart below).

Is money flow going to stop in its tracks and rollover here? Very possible ... as it looks we may be at the top for a market rollover. Jobless claims were up today ... this may be the cause for today's loss.

Stock Market Update - December 16, 2009

2009-12-16T22:14:00.003-05:00

The hourly chart for the Dow looks pretty hard to read to me ... some of the indicators look to be moving up like the money flow and the bottom price indicator (very bottom of the chart). However, the main price indicator and the tick data seem to be moving down.

The daily chart shows some strength ahead with the money flow moving up. Strength could mean prices moving up or support and moving sideways. Today we did have a negative cash flow for the broader market and the NYSE still posted an up volume day at around 53%. I would still have a long position at this point with tight stops to protect and short term profits.

Stock Market Update - December 15, 2009

2009-12-15T20:39:00.002-05:00

Money flow is back a the bottom of the cycle ... we should see some strength to come when the outflow is finished in the short term.

The daily Dow chart shows money flow has bottomed and big money agrees ... there was a ton of buying the ETF indexes today ... we had over $400 million inflow into SPY which measures the S&P 500. We did have an overall outflow of cash today in the broader market (see the above hourly chart) and we had a 65% down volume today on the NYSE.

Here is a snapshot of the dollar moving up. Short-term it looks overbought based solely on the indicators.

You can see the havoc the dollar has reaped on gold. I would have thought the same would have been done for equities ... that has not been the case ... so I must wonder out loud ... Equities may have another big move left that could occur over a longer period ahead of us.

Stock Market Update - December 14, 2009

2009-12-14T20:25:00.002-05:00

Almost all indicators are in the oversold area for the hourly chart of the Dow.

Money flow for the daily chart has turned up. It is possible that we will see a Santa Rally. Money flow is now behind the market unless something derails it. Today we had some money inflow into the boarder market and we also had a 69% up volume day for the NYSE.

Stock Market Update - December 11, 2009

2009-12-12T23:46:00.002-05:00

Money flow is pointed up for the hourly Dow chart. All the shorter term price indicators at the bottom have peaked or are close to peaking. We could see some more upside or sideways movement in price based on the money flow indicator (blue line).

The main trend for stocks are about to turn up ... both money flow (blue line with price) and the bottom two indicators (short term measure of price) have both bottomed and at looking to turn up. The only question is how strong will this support be in terms of price appreciation? Only time will tell. I just think the market is going to move up from here while we will see some divergences in sector indexes. Friday we had an up volume day on the NYSE with 66%.

Stock Market Update - December 10, 2009

2009-12-10T20:42:00.002-05:00

Near term for the Dow hourly chart we are overbought. Money flow indicator has rolled over and the two lower indexes that measure price on the shorter term have topped. The downside may be limited due to the fact that the Dow daily chart is showing the money flow is close to a bottom. This is not to say that we will not or could not see some type of real weakness in the near term.

Money flow (blue line with price) is close to a bottom. Today on the NYSE we had a 62% up volume day with money inflow for the broader market. The two bottom short term indicators point to a bottom in price of some type could be close at hand.

Stock Market Update - December 9, 2009

2009-12-09T21:17:00.002-05:00

We did see the weakness that we were expecting for the hourly Dow chart. The money flow has turned back up ... we should see some strength in the very, very near term ... the bottom two indicators are almost oversold.

Stocks were up today. Money flow looks to be bottoming ... we still may see some more weakness before we have a true move up ... but we are at the point with the cycle and indicators we could see a move up from here. Today we had a cash inflow for the broader market and the volume trade on the NYSE was marginally favorable up at 51%.

Stock Market Update - December 7, 2009

2009-12-07T22:32:00.002-05:00

Money has cycle back to the top for the hourly chart of the Dow. Based solely on the technical indicators and money flow we should be seeing some down pressure or sideways movement over the next few hours of trading.

The daily chart shows money flow nearing a bottom. This is going to be interesting to see what happens from now and until the end of January. Today we had a 54% down volume day and basically a flat day of money flows for the broader market.

Stock Market Update - December 4, 2009

2009-12-06T09:24:00.004-05:00

Money flow for the hourly chart of the Dow has cycled back to the bottom (blue line with price chart).

Money flow on the daily charts looks to be bottoming here as well. We could see a push or two down in price ... but I think we are close to seeing this move back up. Friday was a heavy volume day compared to the last month or so and we also had a large amount of money inflows into the market. The volume traded on the NYSE was 68% up in price.

Something interesting has occurred ... we have a new high with the Transports. I wonder out loud if the market has much more room to move up in price ... I think it just might.

Stock Market Update - December 3, 2009

2009-12-03T22:01:00.003-05:00

Things have turned ... both money flow and price indicator have turned down on the hourly chart for the Dow.

The daily chart shows that money flow has turned down as well ... we might see an extended push down here ... so be warned. Today we did have some inflow of cash on the broader market and the NYSE posted a 70% down volume day.

Stock Market Update - December 2, 2009

2009-12-02T23:45:00.003-05:00

Nothing earthshaking today ... except the unemployment numbers are going to look bad again this month. This is a view of the hourly chart for the Dow.

Today we did have an inflow of cash into the market with 57% up volume on the NYSE. Money flow is poised to head higher which should support prices for the very near term only at this point.

Stock Market Update - December 1, 2009

2009-12-01T21:45:00.003-05:00

I believe we are close to a very short term top on the hourly chart. However ....

The daily chart is showing us something different. Money flow has cycled to the bottom (blue line with price). This tells me that we may see some money move into the market over the next few days. This should hold prices firm or increase the price of equities. Today we did have an up volume day for the NYSE with 82% of the volume traded. Also, there was a net positive cash inflow into the broader market.

Stock Market Update - November 30, 2009

2009-11-30T17:31:00.002-05:00

Hourly chart for the Dow shows money flow has cycled back down. We should see some price support over the next few sessions. Watch out the the price indicator is pointed down.

Today was an up day for the Dow ... we did have 57% of the NYSE volume that was up in price. The money flow indicator is looking to close to a bottom ... this can occur over the next couple of days.

The dollar made a new low over Thanksgiving Holiday. This confirms in my opinion that we are headed lower and the stock market should still see some support.

Stock Market Update - November 24, 2009

2009-11-24T18:45:00.002-05:00

Nothing has really changed and I do not expect them to change this week. However, next week is a different story. The daily chart below shows money flow heading down into its cycle low.

This will be my last post until Monday night of next week for Monday's stock market update.

Stock Market Update - November 23, 2009

2009-11-23T21:12:00.003-05:00

Does this Dow chart look familiar ... if it didn't have the dates attached I could have passed it off as today's chart. The market bottom of 2002 and 2003 looks very much like the market bottom of 2008 and 2009 ... to be exact ... it is exactly the same to date. It is uncanny of how history repeats itself. There was a low made in October and the final low made in March of 2003.

Fast forward to today. We had a low in October/November and made the final low in March ... down to the same week of the calendar in March. And look at the bounce ... we had some summer weakness just as the market did in 2003 (as expected in every summer market) and then we were off to the races once again in 2003 and again in 2009. I know what you are thinking ... what occurred after November in 2003. Go to the next chart ...

The market busted out into a higher rally until March 2004 before we had a correction that really lasted for about 7 months before the market made higher highs later in the year.

I'm not saying that this is going to occur again today ... what I am saying you just need to keep this in the back of your head when you are making trading decisions. A couple of points ... we have come further and faster than the 2003 market rally with higher unemployment and a really bad housing market but with lower interest rates. The economy is different today than it was 6 years ago ... much different. But I would not be surprised to see if the market does the unexpected and move higher ... much higher before it cools off. That would surprise most everyone and have others to push all their cash in over the winter and a leaving no other buyers for the spring market. Today, most everyone is calling for a 10-15% correction ... and the market always has a way of out foxing them.

Stock Market Update - November 20, 2009

2009-11-22T22:46:00.002-05:00

The hourly chart for the Dow shows money flow (blue line) and the price indicator (green line) moving back down into the cycle low for the short term.

We may have a few more days of price weakness based on the money flow indicator (blue line with price). Only question is how much weakness?

The dollar is looking to put in some type of bottom ... not sure if it is a short term or longer term bottom.

I wanted to point out a few charts for gold. Gold has not reached new highs when priced in Euros. This is something we should watch and may point to the direction for a full turn in the dollar when the price of gold meets its last high priced in Euro ... this would be a double top.

Same goes for gold priced in yen. It has not made a new high since 20008. This will be interesting when/if gold reaches the old high ... will a double top be put in and a turn in the dollar be the news of the day ... if so equities will weaken.

Stock Market Update - November 19, 2009

2009-11-20T08:26:00.003-05:00

The hourly chart shows that money flow is moving back up with the price (green line) moving down. We should start to see some price weakness now based on the direction of the daily money flow.

Daily money flow has turned over (blue line).

Is/has the dollar made a bottom?

Stock Market Update - November 18, 2009

2009-11-18T23:49:00.002-05:00

We should see just a little more support on the hourly chart due to the direction of the money flow with the price chart (blue line).

As for the daily chart ... based on history of the money flow we should see some weakness/softness ahead ... the only question is how much??? The money flow cycle indicator has turned over and is heading lower.

Stock Market Update - November 17, 2009

2009-11-17T18:05:00.003-05:00

Hourly chart for the Dow shows money flow is at the bottom of the cycle ... we should see some price support to come for the very short term.

As for the daily chart ... weakness is ahead ... again for the short term ... both money flow and price are close to their respective cycle highs. Any price strength may serve as a chance to short the market here for a few points.

Dollar showed some strength ... again the direction of the market is going to come down to the dollar.

Stock Market Update - November 13, 2009

2009-11-15T19:23:00.002-05:00

The hourly chart of the Dow shows money flow heading back up into the top of the cycle. We may be near a point to short the market very near term here.

The daily chart shows the Dow money flow reaching the top of the cycle ... this is the setup you would like to see ... a move in price late in the cycle for both hourly and daily with corresponding money flow moves topping. Friday we had a 69% up volume day for the NYSE and flat money flow for the broader market.

The dollar was down which gave the market its strength.

Something for the gold bugs here ... the price of gold in Euros has not exceeded its high this past February. Something to note ... we may see a double top in the market.

Stock Market Update - November 12, 2009

2009-11-12T23:10:00.003-05:00

We should have a bounce sometime soon. The hourly chart is oversold for the short term.

On the daily chart the money flow is almost back to the top of the range ... we would need to see the hourly money flow to move back up to the top and look to move back down before we need to even think about the daily money flow line to move back down. Today on for the NYSE we had an 85% volume down day and we has a slight money outflow.

The downward pressure for the market was the dollar.

Stock Market Update - November 11, 2009

2009-11-11T22:10:00.003-05:00

Money flow indicator has bottomed on the hourly chart for the Dow. This does not mean the index will automatically move up from here ... just that it has bottomed on the modified ... the actual is still hanging around the mid point of the cycle. The green line for price is about to roll over ... I think we will need a couple more money flow cycles up and down before we can think of the market truly rolling over somewhat.

Money flow for the daily Dow is just above the mid point. Could be another week +/- a day or two before we see some kind of topping. Today was a 65% up volume day for the NYSE and we did see a positive inflow of cash.

The real question is ... what is the dollar going to do ... and when?

Stock Market Update - November 10, 2009

2009-11-10T19:50:00.002-05:00

We are in a down trend in money flow for the hourly charts. Should only last a few more hours.

Daily money flow trend is still up as well as the primary price indicator (green line). Today we had a 57% down day for the NYSE and the broader market had a small outflow of cash.

Dollar was down today. We are now at a major turning point for the dollar that will have implications for the market for months to come.

Stock Market Update - November 9, 2009

2009-11-09T21:57:00.002-05:00

Price indicator (green line) and money flow have moved back to the top of the cycle.

Money flow is pointed up ... we may see some weakness soon ... we had a 94% up volume day on the NYSE and with modest inflow of money.

The reason for today's bullishness ... you guess it the dollar. I know I sound like a broken record ... but this is not going to change until the dollar reverses. We could see a double top in the Dow back to 15,000 in the next 12 to 18 months if this continues. By the way this marks my 250th blog posting this evening.

Stock Market Update - November 6, 2009

2009-11-08T08:11:00.003-05:00

The hourly chart is showing money flow and price has cycled back to the top of the range. Also, other indicators at the bottom of this chart are showing topping divergences. The tick data is also moving sideways ... I wonder how weak the market really is on this latest move up in price.

All indicators are pointed up ... on a daily basis we are showing strength ahead ... we MAY see a few more days of price support but it still all going to come down to what the dollar is going to do and go in the mean time. On Friday money flow and up/down volume were basically even on the market.

Will the dollar make a small double bottom here and move back up or is the downward trend back in play?

Stock Market Update - November 5, 2009

2009-11-05T19:14:00.002-05:00

We got a pop today in price with the money flow line moving down.

This current rally should last a little ... money flow and the other short term indicators are at their respective cycle bottom except price (green line) and the tick data. Today we had an 85% up volume day on the NYSE.

The dollar was behind today's rally ... it was down.

Stock Market Update - November 4, 2009

2009-11-04T20:17:00.002-05:00

Money flow has peaked and looks to be turning down. We should see some more weakness in the short term on the hourly chart for the Dow.

The money flow has turned back up for the Dow daily chart ... the only question is how strong will this upward push is going to be? Today we had a 53% up volume day and an inflow of cash on the broader market.

The dollar was down today ... this will be interesting to see how long the push down is going to last. Look at the two short term indicators at the bottom of the chart ... both have topped and looks to be headed lower. If the dollar declines ... this should give some support to stocks.

Stock Update - November 3, 2009

2009-11-03T19:19:00.003-05:00

Money flow has reached back to the top ... look like the tick data has pulled itself back up to a respectable level. I wonder out loud if we are in for weaker prices?

Based on the daily chart we are at the bottom of the money flow cycle. That does not mean the market will automatically go up from here ... what it tells us that the probability is higher that we will see some money flowing into the market to support or push prices up. Totay we had over 60% plus up volume day for the NYSE.

The dollar still looks to be topping short term.

Stock Market Update - November 2, 2009

2009-11-02T20:17:00.002-05:00

Money flow is at the bottom of the cycle ... and the tick data in the chart under price looks to have hit a bottom as well. We should see price move up.

Daily chart also shows the money has extended into a bottom as well. All the other indicators have bottomed. The one indicator that still has not is the price (green line with price chart). Today we had a 53% up volume day on the NYSE.

The market was up today because of the dollar ... it was down.

Stock Market Update - October 30, 2009

2009-11-01T08:27:00.002-05:00

The actual money flow has reached the bottom but the modified money flow still has a little to go. All other indicators except the price (green line) has bottomed. I would not be surprised if we were to see some strength Monday or Tuesday but I don't know for how long.

Money flow indicator (blue line) and all the other indicators have reached a bottom except price (green line). The direction of the dollar is going to drive the price of equities. Friday we had a 95% down volume day but the commercials loaded up on stocks. Big money is betting this downside move is over for the short term. I would tend to agree based solely on the technical indicators but I don't know for how long.

The indicators are showing the dollar is due for a short term correction. We may see a double bottom before the dollar really starts to move up.

Stock Market Updatae - October 29, 2009

2009-10-29T23:03:00.003-04:00

Everything is back up to overbought again ... except the green line for price.

Money flow has turned up on the original indicator. All other indicators except price looks to have bottomed for the short term.

Stock Market Update - October 28, 2009

2009-10-28T21:37:00.002-04:00

Money flow (blue line with price) has bottomed on the hourly chart for the Dow. As well as the other indicators.

The daily chart shows the money flow close to bottoming as well but the price indicator (green line) has not followed it down. Today we had a 90% down volume on the NYSE and we had a large outflow of cash for the broader market. I would think we might see a window to trade long here for the short term ... I would not be surprised to see some more weakness on the hourly chart first before we move back up.

The dollar is up and equities are down ... its that simple.

Stock Market Update Mid Day October 28, 2009

2009-10-28T14:26:00.001-04:00

Mid Day Update for the Dow 60 min. The Market is Currently Down.

Stock Market Update - October 27, 2009

2009-10-27T22:18:00.003-04:00

Money flow is moving up ... as we talked about last night.

As for the daily cycle it has a little more room to go down ... money flow. Today was a 65% down volume day for the NYSE and money flow into the broader market was basically flat. The bigger picture is that the direction of the dollar is going to determine the direction of equities.

Stock Market Update - October 26, 2009

2009-10-26T20:48:00.002-04:00

Everything has bottomed on the hourly chart ... the money flow (blue line), price indicator (green line) ... including the tick data measure ... graph just below price. All this tells me we may see some strength in price ... I do not know how long its going to last if we do.

As for the daily market everything is still pointed down at this point on all the indicators including price ... this leads me to believe we should still see some kind of weakness ahead. We did have a money outflow today on the broader market and the NYSE posted an 87% down volume day. Bu the market is going to follow ....

... the DOLLAR. Today was a major push up ... this will be interesting to watch. If you think the dollar has more room to move up then you should think about shorting gold, silver, equity indexes and oil.

2009-10-25T20:04:00.002-04:00

On the hourly charts for the Dow both the price (green line) and money flow (blue line) are at the cycle low. I'm not sure were we are headed from here. But I do know it is going to depend on the dollar.

On the daily chart all indicators look to be heading down including money flow and price. We will just have to wait and see what the dollar does.

Stock Market Update - October 22, 2009

2009-10-22T21:21:00.002-04:00

Actual money flow has made it back to the top ... while the modified money flow indicator is coming up off its cycle low. This is going to be a choppy market ... possibly.

Moeny flow has rolled over ... but do not be surprised if we see more days like this one. Its all going to come down to the DOLLAR.

Stock Market Update - October 21, 2009

2009-10-21T20:44:00.003-04:00

The hourly money flow has turned down quickly ... I don't know if I like the hourly setup thus far with the price indicator (green line) making a bottom here quickly. This is not to say things can't stay oversold ... they can.

The daily chart shows the money flow rolling over and heading down now. The question is how long with this last ... I do think the next time we see the money flow (blue line) bottom along with the price indicator (green line) this will be a time to buy. Today we had a 72% up volume day for the NYSE and negative money flow for the broader market.

Stock Market Update - October 20, 2009

2009-10-20T20:07:00.002-04:00

Quick item to note ... looks like the price spiked in the 1st hour of trading is wrong on the chart above. Money flow is bottoming and is due to turn up at anytime. We should see some strength in the next few hours.

Daily chart ... the money flow has rolled over and all other indicators are rolling over as well. This may be the time to short ... near term ... once the hourly money flow peaks. Today was a 77% volume down day for the NYSE.

Stock Market Update - October 19, 2009

2009-10-19T22:40:00.002-04:00

Money flow on the hourly chart has completed its move to the top of the cycle ... therefore ... I believe now is as good as any time to short if one is inclined to do so. We may get a move up in the next day or two ... or not ... only time will tell and the direction of the dollar.

The daily actual money flow has turn down but the my modified indicator has not. We may still see some strength ... but its all going to come down to the dollar. All the daily indicators are topping on the bottom of the chart. Today we had a 69% up volume day with pretty good inflow of cash. We did have some selling on strength day for SPY and we did have a lower volume day. This might be a sign that this phase of the bull is slowing some and is looking for a resting place ... not a crash ... but a resting place for a few days or weeks.

The dollar was down today. This is going to determine in the near term the direction of stocks.

Stock Market Update - October 16, 2009

2009-10-17T07:51:00.002-04:00

The money flow for the hourly chart has bottomed and now is moving back up in the cycle ... we are about mid-point in the cycle.

The daily chart is peaking from a money flow standpoint. Remember money flow can bounce along the top for a little while. I would wait until the hourly chart peaks here and then look to put on a near term short position with a quick trigger finger to close the trade out if money flow and price is moving against you. On Friday we had a 75% down volume day on the NYSE and the money flow was out and it was large amount that flowed out.

It is possible the dollar is making a low here ... for a while. We will just have to wait and see what the market for the dollar is going to do here ... its direction is important to prices relating to equities and commodities.

Stock Market Update - October 15, 2009

2009-10-15T22:14:00.002-04:00

It looks like money flow has an aborted cycle bottom which means this is a bullish run. I would wait until we see the cycle top for money flow or the second cycle top for money flow before I would exit any short term longs or look to short the market for the very near term.

The near term for the daily chart shows money flow has peaked ... but this can bounce around the top for a few days while price continues to climb. This is just a thought ... not what really is going to occur. We just need to watch the money flow to guide us as well as the other short term indicators. Today was a massive inflow of cash for the market and we had a 51% up volume day on the NYSE.

Stock Market Update Mid Day October 15, 2009

2009-10-15T15:00:00.001-04:00

Mid Day Update for the Dow 60 min. The Market is Currently Up.

Stock Market Update - October 14, 2009

2009-10-14T21:19:00.002-04:00

Money flow is almost back to the top of the cycle (blue line) ... this does not mean automatically the market will rollover from here. We may have to get one more full cycle under our belts before we see any downward movement ... we will just have to wait and see.

Today for the NYSE we had an 87% up volume day and only a small amount of net money inflow into the broader market. We did have some volume .... but it was not an extreme amount. I do believe we do have higher to go in this rally over time based on the government stimulus and low interest rates. The money flow for the daily chart has/is peaking on this move up in price ... all we need to do is watch to see if we see any signs that we might need to wait one more money flow cycle up before we short (the short or exit will only be for a short period of time) as I do believe we will move up higher in price over time.

This picture keeps me up at night ... the dollar may be in serious trouble.

Stock Market Update - October 13, 2009

2009-10-13T21:17:00.002-04:00

Before I think of even shorting this market I am going to wait until the money flow reaches the to of the cycle again ... this may occur over the next two or three day. Then and only then will a determination will be made to short ... I don't believe we will have a crash but it may be good for a few points. A lot is going to depend on what kind of shape the dollar is in at the time which closed lower today.

The daily chart shows that money flow has reached the top again on the actual indicator and close to the top on the modified indicator. Also, the other indicators below are measuring a top in price. I will say it again we will need to understand what the performance of the dollar is going to be if we are take a short position.

Stock Market Update Mid Day October 13, 2009

2009-10-13T14:29:00.002-04:00

Mid Day Update for the Dow 60 min. The Market is Currently Down.

Stock Market Update - October 12, 2009

2009-10-12T22:47:00.003-04:00

Money flow for the hourly chart has peaked. Price are going to be dependent on two things - first is which direction is the dollar going to take and second which direction the money flow is going to go on the daily charts for the Dow and how much is it actually going to support prices.

Money flow is close to peaking ... but I don't think prices are peaking. I think we have to wait and see what the dollar is going to do over the next few weeks to give us an indication on equities.

Stock Market Update - October 9, 2009

2009-10-11T04:18:00.002-04:00

Money flow for the hourly charts has just now started to peak. We are now at one of the most important junctures in the stock market history. What is this thing going to do? A lot of it depends on the current direction of the dollar ... earnings PE ratio is still in the stratosphere for the S&P 500. If the dollar continues is slow descent downward ... which without intervention ... it will occur ... then commodities and stocks to a point will be the place to be. What could make things even worse for the dollar is if OPEC and Russia decided to delink the price of oil from the dollar ... then watch out ... no one would be wanting to hold dollars anymore and they would not have a reason to hold them for that matter.

The money flow could bounce around the top of the cycle here before moving back down. I would be careful to short here ... generally money has one more trip down and then back up before the primary indicator (green line) will roll over and start its move down. What I was saying about the market being at an important juncture was that if the market does not make a new high ... see both the hourly chart and the daily chart ... then we could see the seasonal high being made in September. We will just have to wait and see ... again a lot is going to depend on the dollar.

Money flow for the daily chart is moving back up ... we still have a ways to go before it tops. See comments above about the hourly money flow. Friday we did have money flowing into the broader market as just over $700 million and the NYSE posted a 59% up volume day.

Is this a small double bottom here for the dollar? We will just have to wait and see. If you can figure out the direction of the dollar ... then you have the current formula for the direction of the equities and commodities markets.

As long as the dollar heads lower ... then gold has only one way to go and that is up.

Stock Market Update Mid Day October 8, 2009

2009-10-08T14:34:00.002-04:00

Mid Day Update for the Dow 60 min. The Market is Currently Up.

No Update Wednesday or Thursday.

2009-10-06T23:50:00.001-04:00

I will not make an update on Wednesday or Thursday evening. It might be possible that I MIGHT make a quick update for Wednesday.

Stock Market Update - October 6, 2009

2009-10-06T23:41:00.002-04:00

Money flow (blue line) has turned down on the hourly charts for the Dow. This does not mean that price will follow if the primary trend is up (green line) ... it can move sideways.

Money flow is moving up from its cycle low. The one item we need to watch is what is the primary trend going to do ... is it going to move down once the money flow has topped or is it going to move back up when money flow tops? Only time will tell over the next few days. Today we did see money inflow on the broader market with a 79% up volume day on the NYSE. Gold made a new high from the March high of 2008 and the dollar moved down. If this keeps up inflation is around the corner.

Stock Market Update Mid Day October 6, 2009

2009-10-06T14:38:00.001-04:00

Mid Day Update for the Dow 60 min. The Market is Currently Up.

Stock Market Update - October 5, 2009

2009-10-05T21:48:00.003-04:00

Money flow on the hourly chart for the Dow has already shot back to the top today. I would not be surprised if we see some weakness to sideways movement for the next few trading hours while the money flow cycles back to the bottom. Basically all indicators are overbought except the primary trend indicator (green line with price).

As for the daily charts money flow has reached the bottom of the cycle and looks to be headed back up ... watch out ... these things can tend to bounce along the bottom ... see hourly charts above with the expected move back down to the bottom of the money flow cycle. We have reached a short term bottom on the daily prices relative to money flow. We will just have to see how far this rally will continue. Couple of items that do worry me is the primary indicator for price is at the top of the cycle (green line) and volume has been weak. Today we had an 88% up volume day for the NYSE and cash inflow into the broader market of under $1 billion. We did see selling into strength today for the ETF QQQQ.

One item to note as a strategy ... one could look at the next little peak as an interim top and could look at shorting the market when money flow heads back to the top of the cycle and when it has topped.

Stock Market Update - October 2, 2009

2009-10-04T08:15:00.002-04:00

Money flow for the hourly chart has cycle back to the top. Looking at both the hourly and daily chart for the Dow I might would wait for the hourly money flow to cycle back to the bottom before I would put money to work in the form of a long position. There has been heavy buying on weakness the last few sessions in the form of Index ETF's (long positions) ... it is commercial money going long. Remember nothing is guaranteed. The only question would be how long and how high will the next move up last?

Money flow has cycled to the bottom ... remember we could make a double bottom here in terms of the money flow ... a number of things could occur before heading back up. Also, to note of Friday the high yield debt ETF's open sharply lower but ended the day in positive territory. I would look at this as some strength. On Friday we did have money outflow on the broader market and a 68% down volume day on the NYSE.

Stock Market Update - October 1, 2009

2009-10-01T23:11:00.002-04:00

Ouch! Today hurt pretty badly if you were long. Last night I talked about the possible double bottom for cash flow ... well it occurred. I would expect sometime on Friday or Monday the market to firm some in price. Again this is what the indicators are telling us what MAY happen.

Money flow is close to the bottom. Look for support when this bottoms. Today we had a 94% volume down day for the NYSE ... this means we usually receive some kind of support in price in the next few days.

Stock Market Update - September 30, 2009

2009-09-30T22:04:00.002-04:00

Money flow has bottomed on the hourly chart ... we may get a double bottom on the actual indicator. We should see some strength based on the direction of the money flow soon due to the daily chart below.

It looks as if the daily chart of the Dow that the money flow is about to bottom over the next few sessions. Question will be ... how strong will price be once the money flow turns up? Today we had a 58% down volume day for the NYSE.

Stock Market Update Mid Day September 30, 2009

2009-09-30T14:48:00.001-04:00

Mid Day Update for the Dow 60min. The Market is Currently Up.

Stock Market Update - September 29, 2009

2009-09-29T16:10:00.003-04:00

Hourly chart for the Dow shows money flow is almost cycled to the bottom and the primary indicator (green line with price chart) is headed up. We should see some strength when the money flow bottoms and providing the dollar cooperates.

Same here for the daily Dow chart ... money flow looks to be close to a bottom (blue line with price chart) ... so once it bottoms and starts back up we should see some overall strength if the dollar cooperates. One item that still worries me some is the volume ... or lack thereof. Today it was a 50/50 for percentage of up/down volume on the NYSE and the money flow for the broader market was basically even. There was large buying today of QQQQ's.

Stock Market Update - September 28, 2009

2009-09-28T22:39:00.002-04:00

Money flow for the hourly Dow chart has cycled back to the top ... it looks like all the other indicators have done the same as well with the exception of the primary trend indicator (green line). I would think we may see some weakness near term but some strength beyond due to where the primary indicator is located in its cycle.

The daily chart shows money flow has made a turn ... but not upward just yet. It is very possible we have seen a mini cycle low with higher prices for the future. I would look to buy a strong breakout only if we have STRONG volume with price. One item that does concern me is that today for the Dow and S&P 500 was one of the weakest volume days for the entire year ... not what I would want to see with a large price move. Today we had a large cash flow on the broader market with an 86% up volume day for the NYSE. We may be on a jet rocket to 12,500 for the Dow or higher.

Stock Market Update - September 24, 2009

2009-09-24T22:11:00.002-04:00

Money flow has bottomed on the hourly chart. I would expect some support here for the very, very near term. All short term indicators are oversold.

As for the daily chart of the Dow the money flow has turned down and is heading lower. I would expected weakness in price until the money flow (blue line) indicator has cycled back to the bottom. Today we had an 85% down volume day for the NYSE and we did not see a major outflow of cash for the broader market. However, we did see almost $700 million of buying on weakness for SPY. Just a note of warning ... the commercials may have other intentions for this market.

The dollar was up today ... the reason for the weakness in equities.

Just a note on the Baltic Dry Index ... it is down and has been moving down since June. A possible reason is the lack of imports/exports to and from China. One would think that if there is ample freight capacity on the open seas ... there is not to much commerce being transacted and without commerce being transacted ... money is not being made. A downturn in this index has mirrored a corresponding downturn in equities.

Stock Market Update Mid Day September 24, 2009

2009-09-24T14:14:00.002-04:00

Mid Day Update for the Dow 60 min. The Market is Currently Down.

Stock Market Update - September 23, 2009

2009-09-23T22:04:00.002-04:00

The hourly chart shows clearly the sell off that occurred in the last hour of trading. All indicators including money flow were rolling over or were about to rollover ... it should have been expected. We may see some weakness early ... but based on money it has cycled back to the bottom so we may see strength a little later on during the day or on Friday.

Money flow and all the indicators are about to head back down on the daily chart. This is not a time in my opinion to enter into long positions ... I would want to wait until the money flow at least has cycled back to the bottom again. Today we did have a cash outflow on the broader market and it was an 80% down volume day.

The dollar was up today ... but one thing I did not like ... it made a new intra day low. This run lower on the dollar may not be over just yet. I still say if you feel up to it ... now would be the time to short the market with TZA. I would keep my stops tight around the $10.75 to $10.85 area.

Stock Market Update Mid Day September 23, 2009

2009-09-23T15:07:00.002-04:00

Mid Day Update for the Dow 60 min. The Market is Currently Up.

Stock Market Update - September 22, 2009

2009-09-22T22:13:00.002-04:00

This is going to interesting. The hourly chart for the Dow is rolling over from a money flow and all indicators. The only item that is moving up is the actual NYSE hourly tick data.

The daily chart of the Dow shows money flow and all the indicators have or are topping.

The reason the market was up today was that the dollar sold off hard today. This is going to be interesting to see which way this goes. If the dollar continues down then this spells strength in the equity market and gold. IF the dollar moves up in value ... this is going to lend some weakness in stocks and gold. Keep you eye on the dollar ... it will show you the way to trade stocks. If you feel game ... this might be a very good time to buy TZA and keep a tight stop around $10.75 to $10.85.

Stock Market Update Mid Day September 22, 2009

2009-09-22T14:55:00.002-04:00

Mid Day Update for the Dow 60 min. The Market is Currently Up.

Stock Market Update - September 21, 2009

2009-09-21T22:29:00.002-04:00

Money flow and the short term indicators are pointed up ... we could see a push up in prices on a very short term basis. The primary indicator (green line with price) is pointed down.

Money flow is peaking and all the short term indicators are topping on the daily chart. I personally would not take on any new long positions here. I would wait to see what the market looks like once the money flow has cycled back to the bottom. Today we had a 60% down volume day and we did have an outflow of cash across the broader market.

The reason for the weakness in equities is ... you guessed it the dollar. We will have to wait a couple of sessions to see what kind of bottom has been made with the dollar.

Stock Market Update Mid Day September 21, 2009

2009-09-21T14:02:00.002-04:00

Mid Day Update for the Dow 60 min. The Market is Currently Down.

Stock Market Update - September 18, 2009

2009-09-20T07:13:00.002-04:00

The Dow hourly chart shows that money flow has cycled to a low and looks to be headed back up. This should support the market some.

The daily chart show money flow has almost peaked ... looking at the daily money flow - when it peaks the daily should be very close to peaking. This MIGHT setup an opportunity to trade the market short with the ETF TZA (I would only look for a few points out of this trade at this time). Something I would be thinking about IF the market gives the trade to you. Friday was a weird day from a metrics perspective we had a ton of money to flow into the market on heavy volume and the up/down volume % was 50/50.

The dollar gave it a rest on Friday ... looks that it has made some type of bottom ... be careful ... it may not be THE bottom.

Stock Market Update Mid Day September 18, 2009

2009-09-18T11:17:00.002-04:00

Mid Day Update for the Dow 60 min. The Market is Currently Up.

Stock Market Update - September 17, 2009

2009-09-17T21:27:00.003-04:00

Money flow is headed back down on the hourly chart ... so I'm not surprised we are seeing some weakness. The dollar also cooperated today by showing a small bit of strength.

Money flow is peaking as well as the other indicators ... I would not be surprised price to cool off over the next couple of weeks. Today we had a 62% down volume day and a large cash outflow on the broader market.

But I still say its all going to come down to this ... the dollar. The direction of the dollar will determine the direction of the market. Sorry but nothing has really changed.

Stock Market Update - September 16, 2009

2009-09-16T22:18:00.002-04:00

I am going to lead off with what matters the most ... the direction of the dollar. That is all that matters at the moment for stocks.

The rally for the short term looks exhausted ... not to say we could see a sharp spike in prices due to an up exhaustion phase.

Today we had an inflow of $1.9 billion in cash for the broader market and we had an 84% up volume day. The item that really concerns me that we had heavy selling into straight for SPY and QQQQ today.

Stock Market Update Mid Day September 15, 2009

2009-09-16T14:44:00.001-04:00

Mid Day Update for the Dow 60 min. The Market is Currently Up.

Stock Market Update - September 15, 2009

2009-09-15T22:50:00.002-04:00

The hourly chart is overbought and money flow is headed back down in the cycle.

On the daily chart for the Dow all indicators have topped except money flow which is heading up for a top. Today we had cash inflow into the broader market and a up volume day of around 58% ... but all this is meaningless because of the following chart.

The Dollar ... its going to come down to this ... what is the dollar going to do ... the more it goes down ... the more equities and commodities are going to move sideways or move up in value.

Stock Market Update - September 14, 2009

2009-09-14T23:48:00.003-04:00

Here is a chart of the daily Dow. All indicators are moving back up into the top of the cycle. We could see some weakness when money flow reaches the top of the cycle of overbought on all indicators. Today we had just under $800 million of cash inflow into the broader market with a 68% up volume day.

Same picture here as the daily pretty much. All indicators are heading back up in the cycle including money flow (blue line). Interesting that price and the tick data have not made new highs here. Something to watch ... we could see some short term weakness.

Stock Market Update - September 11, 2009

2009-09-13T06:14:00.002-04:00

Money flow has cycled to the bottom and so have most of the other short term indicators. The green line which is the primary indicator for price is overbought but I think in the coming hours of trading we should see some strength ... it may not lost long but this oversold condition must be addressed in some manner.

The daily chart of the Dow is showing that most of the indicators are overbought ... remember these things can stay overbought for sometime. With all the liquidity moving into the market it is going to be hard to short this ... but I would be on my toes to do so because most of the metrics for the market look overbought. Friday we had a 53% down volume day and an outflow of cash on the major markets.

As long as the dollar is headed down in an orderly fashion this should be a boost for equities especially for overseas investors. However, I'm beginning to think the dollar does not move down in an orderly manner moves to a crash scenario then we could have problems in equities and in the bond market.

Stock Market Update September 11, 2009

2009-09-11T15:19:00.002-04:00

Mid Day Update for the Dow 60 min. The Market is Currently Down.

Stock Market Update - September 10, 2009

2009-09-10T22:39:00.002-04:00

Money flow is about to cycle back up for the daily charts over the next few days. Not to say that we will not see weakness ... the blue line with price measures the money flow cycle.

The same goes for the daily chart. Money flow is working its way to a cycle low then a push up. I would not want to stand in the way of this with a short position.

It looks as if we are headed for a probable currency crisis. The dollar closed down today ... again. If we close below 70 watch out. The direction of the dollar with determine the inverse direction of the equities market.

Stock Market Update Mid Day September 10, 2009

2009-09-10T14:28:00.002-04:00

Mid Day Update for the Dow 60 min. The Market is Currently Up.

Stock Market Update - September 9, 2009

2009-09-09T22:35:00.002-04:00

Sorry no charts this evening. My charting service is down. better luck on Thursday. If its up before I head out to work in the morning I will post the daily Dow chart. We did have a 66% up volume day for the NYSE and we did see almost $1 billion in cash inflow. If you look at a blog I posted one month ago to the day I suggested the market may move up another 2,000 points or more ... this would put the rally at over 11,000 plus for the Dow. I think this is still possible ... its all going to come down to the dollar.

Stock Market Update - September 8, 2009

2009-09-08T22:34:00.002-04:00

The actual money flow has turned back up and the green line price indicator is still pointed up on the hourly chart. However, all other indicators are looking very overbought or have topped and moving lower (including the tick data).

We did have an accumulation day for the Dow on the daily chart. The NYSE had a 65% up volume day and the broader had a cash inflow of over $2 billion. Basically all the indicators are nuetral here ... the market could go either way here ... in my opinion its still going to come down to the dollar.

The dollar made a new short term low today. If this keeps up ... gold and equities will march higher in the new term. This is really going to be interesting here if this breaks down ... will we have a currency crisis in the dollar?

Stock Market Update - September 4, 2009

2009-09-07T13:19:00.003-04:00

The very near term for the Dow hourly chart looks to be overbought ... I would not be surprised if we did see some sideways movement ... remember you only need a couple of hours for this to burn off. The primary indicator (green line) is still up and the money flow looks to be topping as well as the tick data (chart below the price in blue).

Money flow for the daily chart has turned back up. Primary indicator is still down ... we will just have to wait and see what the dollar has in store for us. Friday gave us a cash inflow for the broader market with over 85% up volume on the NYSE.

Just a note the silver short was stopped out at $6.75 for ZSL if anyone took the trade.

Stock Market Update Mid Day September 4, 2009

2009-09-04T12:42:00.001-04:00

Mid Day Update for the Dow 60 min. The Market is Currently Up.

Stock Market Update - September 3, 2009

2009-09-03T22:38:00.003-04:00

Money flow on the hourly chart has moved back up ... most of the indicators are back up at the top of their cycles. The only item that has not cycled back to the top is the Green line with price ... this is a primary indicator or price. I would wait until money flow has cycled back down again and the market looked okay from a technical standpoint before I would attempt a long position for the very near term.

On the daily chart the money flow has made a small turn but still is pointed down. Based on the daily chart price is still in a down mode. We will have to wait and see what the dollar is going to do. Today we had a 84% up volume day on the NYSE and $2.3 billion of cash inflow.

A look at the dollar ... still looks to making a bottom.

One area to look at ... Junk Bonds ... there is a divergence in price to the downside. If this breaks down ... watch out.

Stock Market Update Mid Day September 3, 2009

2009-09-03T13:09:00.002-04:00

Mid Day Update for the Dow 60 min. The Market is Currently Up.

Stock Market Update - Semptember 2, 2009

2009-09-02T22:36:00.002-04:00

Here is a look at the hourly chart for the Dow (its ETF - DIA). It looks very sloppy at the moment. I would have to say the bias is down for now ... but this could change after a hour or so. A lot is going to depend on the dollar.

The daily chart is still showing the money flow moving down. It will be interesting to see how far down into the cycle it goes. All the short term indicators are pointed down as well as the primary trend indicator (the green line). Today we had a small amount of net cash inflow into the market and we had a 58% down volume day on the NYSE.

The equity market is going to come down to which way the dollar is going to move. This looks to me it is building a base for a possible move up over the longer term.

Stock Market Update - September 1, 2009

2009-09-01T23:47:00.002-04:00

I've decide to show the chart for the ETF for the Dow (DIA). I wanted to show the money flow ... and how the trend indicators are looking to make a cycle low for the near term. Remember these prices can stay oversold for an extended period.

The daily chart shows price is just getting started heading down for the time being. Money flow can change direction at anytime ... be on your toes and keep your stops close. Today we did have a cash outflow day and 94% down day in terms of volume.

The dollar was the driver of the selloff. Question is how long will the dollar move up?

Stock Market Update Mid Day September 1, 2009

2009-09-01T14:07:00.001-04:00

Mid Day Update for the Dow 60 min. The Market is Currently Down.

Stock Market Update - August 31, 2009

2009-09-01T06:54:00.003-04:00

Here is a look at the hourly chart for the Dow.

The daily chart shows that the money flow has peaked. The only question is how much the market will move to the downside and will it be a slow move over the next few days, weeks or months. On Monday we had a 79% down volume day on the NYSE and on the broader market we had a large outflow of cash.

The dollar is holding up here and this looks to be a major support. Time will tell where we go over the next few weeks ... we could stay in a range. That would frustrate almost everyone who are expecting things to move one way or anther.

Stock Update - August 28, 2009

2009-08-29T08:36:00.002-04:00

We will start with a view of the hourly chart for the Dow. All indicators are pointed down for the hourly Dow. Price at this point looks to have a ceiling of around 9,600.

Money flow (blue line with price) has cycled back to the top. The price indicator (green line) is pointed down, the tick data looks weak and the bottom two indicators on the chart are peaking or have peaked. We could see some further price appreciation here ... its all going to depend on the dollar. I believe we are at a major intersection. All depends on the dollar. If you have the stomach to short ... I think now is the time but give yourself some room on your stop ... we may see some price movement upwards over the next few days. Friday we had a 59% up volume day and believe or not ... we did have a cash outflow (basically the market was mixed). If you are looking to short the market you can try using TZA, QID or SDS. All are very liquid ETF's. Currently, I do not hold any positions with these ETF's.

What is the dollar going to do next? Is it building a base?

Junk debt looks to be running into some exhaustion on its move up. Money flow and price is waning in strength. Could the divergence in price be a warning sign for us? The primary trend indicator is down (green line with price).

I looked back over the last ten years on this chart and we are at its highest measure for percentage bullish on the NYSE. It closed at over 80% on Friday and it did not close over this mark in 1999, early 2000, 2004 or 2007 bull market years. EVERYONE is BULLISH. This is going to be interesting on how this is going to work itself out.

Stock Market Update - August 27, 2009

2009-08-27T22:39:00.003-04:00

The primary indicator is pointed down (green line) ... everything else including the tick data looks to have some support. But ... its all going to come down to the dollar.

Money flow and the other short term indicators look like this move is almost over (based only on the indicators). One could take a short ... but I would not want to hold this position over the weekend ... who knows what the market is going to look like before it opens. Today we had a 68% up volume day with flat cash flows. We also had some selling on strength today with SPY (the ETF for the S&P 500). But ... its all going to come down to the dollar.

Dollar looks weak here ... I would not short it at these levels.

Stock Market Update Mid Day August 27, 2009

2009-08-27T14:43:00.001-04:00

Mid Day Update for the Dow 60 min. The Market is Currently Up.

Stock Market Update - August 26, 2009

2009-08-26T22:44:00.003-04:00

Not much happening today with the market ... except the dollar. Money flow at this point is still up for the market and as long as this is positive from an indicator point we should still see strength. Today was a 54% down volume day with a cash outflow on the broader market.

The dollar had an up day ... hence the reason for the equities lack of performance. The dollar direction will have a direct impact on oil, gold and equities ... if the dollar moves up ... then these asset classes will move down in value.

Stock Market Update Mid Day August 26, 2009

2009-08-26T12:48:00.001-04:00

Mid Day Report for the Dow 60 min. The Market is Currently Down.

Stock Market Update - August 25, 2009

2009-08-25T21:04:00.003-04:00

I am going to show you the hourly chart of DIA which the ETF of the Dow. I wanted to see where the money flow (blue line with the price chart) was headed in the near term ... it looks to be heading up. Based on the two bottom indicators and the money flow ... we "MAY" see some more strength in the hours ahead in trading. Based on the consumer confidence index today ... we should see bright and shinny skies ahead.

Money flow is cycling back up here as well as the two shorter term indicators at the bottom of the chart. I think this also gives the market some near term support. Today we had a 59% up volume day with $750 million in cash inflow for the broader market.

The dollar was even today ... we may be finding some support here. This should determine the price of commodities and equities over the next few months and maybe longer.

Stock Market Update Mid Day August 25, 2009

2009-08-25T13:56:00.001-04:00

Mid Day Update for the Dow 60 min. The Market is Currently Up.

Stock Market Update - August 24, 2009

2009-08-24T22:44:00.002-04:00

The hourly chart is showing the intermediate price has reached the top of a cycle. Just a note it can stay overbought for a period ... look at the bottom two indicators ... they are close to the bottom of their cycle. Once they turn up this will show some support for the market. Confusing I know but keep a watch on them for direction of the market.

Money flow is now basically flat on the actual indicator ... however the modified indicator is still pointed up (blue line). Today we had a 55% up day on volume and money flow was down a bit. It looks that the short term indicators are beginning to move up (bottom two indicators). I'm going to say this ... I think its going to be hard to say exactly where we are headed in terms of price next ... I do think we still have some room to move up but we will just have to wait and see.

The dollar was up today and this is what gave us the weakness in equities.

Just one item to keep an eye on ... High Yielding Debt (Junk Bonds) has or is making what seems to be a divergence in price. If this breaks down I think this could be an early indicator of what is in store for the market.

Stock Market Update Mid Day August 24, 2009

2009-08-24T15:15:00.002-04:00

Mid Day Report for the Dow 60 min. The Market is Currently Up.