Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Stock Market Update - April 14, 2009


Today was a heavy selling day from a volume standpoint for the Dow. In fact, if you look over the past 6 months or so you will see on the above chart (second from the bottom) there have only been 3 other down days with heavier volume. This is actually healthy in the long run for the market to work off some of the optimism that has been created by the long run we have had for the last few weeks.



I've included the 60 minute chart for the Dow as well. As you can see based on the green indicator we are in a possible topping mode. The reason I say possible is because the market can move in any direction it needs to do on any given day for any period to time. The market can stay oversold for a period of time as well as overbought for a period of time ... extremes can be maintained for some time in the market.

Also for the day there wasn't any big money inflows or outflows to speak of for QQQQ, DIA and SPY. Only that the total US stock market had a total outflow of just under $1.3 billion (according to The Wall Street Journal). The financials today took the biggest hit with nearly two-thirds of this out flow ... by far the largest percentage outflow for any sector.


I'm ending with a chart of SPY and I wanted to point out the black line (its a Frye indicator) in the volume portion of the chart ... its the second chart from the bottom. Notice each time over the past few months how the price has peaked and the indicator has reached a low and a inverse relationship has occurred when price has reached a bottom the indicator is at its high. It is occurring again ... bottom that is ... one has to wonder is this a near term top for the market with small correction ahead or are we in for a bigger downside surprise.

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