The market rallied late today. The stats send a very mixed message of today's action. Price was up on all three major indexes and on the NYSE close to 65% of all volume traded was up in price. However, the QQQQ's ETF which can be indicative of how the commercial money is flowing had a net outflow on the day of just over $59 million and the Dow Jones U.S. Total market had a net outflow of $91 million. The data is very indicative of how the day went ... mixed on both sides just a late push at the end. To date nothing is compelling to say that this market will head to higher highs ... I do expected choppy sideways to down movement for a few days. I think everyone is waiting on the Treasury's news on the "Stress Tests".
I just wanted to point out again the peaking of the volume indicator (noted with the blue arrow). This has historically represented some type of bottoming in the near term market when this indicator has peaked ... we just don't know if this is the bottom, bottom to date. Just keep an eye on the money flow and the indicators ... this will give you some clue to which way the market is going to swing.
I just wanted to leave you with a final chart ... the volatility indicator. The black and red line is the actual indicator. The green line is the Frye indicator. The blue line is the S&P 500 price. The black line is the Tick data measured by the Frye indicator. I wanted to point out the the green line looks to be bottoming. Each time this has occurred over the past year or so ... the market has made a top and declining prices have followed as the volatility has picked back up.Remember to use your stop wisely.
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i can alrady tell you what the "strees test" will say. it will be double talk where they will say the banks are better but they still need to keep their TARP money so the govt wont accept any repayments.
ReplyDeleteI believe you are correct.
ReplyDelete