Thursday, May 21, 2009

Stock Market Update - May 21, 2009

Today was expected but I did believe we were going to have a bit of strength early this morning in prices. The DJ US Total Market had a net outflow of $727 million for the day. Also, it was a 77% down volume day. No ETF's had any major inflow or outflow of cash. I believe we now have to wait and see where this is going to take us. The US dollar has moved down in value the last couple of days and so has the market ... I still don't think the correlation has been delinked to date of a falling dollar and rising market.

This is the Dow 60 minute chart. The green indicator above needs to continue to cycle down to the bottom before a full bottom is completed very near term. It might not make it due to the red line in the price chart above (Tick Data) tells us that the price is in a positive trend at the moment plus the other indicators at the bottom of the page are oversold. This is perhaps one of the most important junctures in the market this year. If the market does not move any further down and continues its ascent upward and breaks above its January 2009 on strong volume ... then let the good times roll. However, if we see price roll over here and head lower on stronger volume then watch out. I still believe we are going to see some type of correction ... I just don't know how far this will move down in price.

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