Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Stock Market Update - May 26, 2009

Last night I wrote and told you that we may see some very near term weakness. Well ... if you blinked this morning you would have missed it ... it lasted all of about 10 minutes. I have enclosed a 5 minute chart of the Dow to show the weakness. I did add later on in the blog I felt we might see some strength over the next few days based on the daily chart ... I just didn't think we would see it all in one day thanks to the consumer confidence index that was released today.
Here is a look at the 60 minute chart for the Dow. This is updated each day around noon.

This is a look at the daily chart. I still think we may have some more strength based on the blue money flow line (see the above price chart) ... but nothing is guaranteed. There was a small amount of money flow into the market today for the Dow Jones US Total Market of just $284 million ... Financials had the largest inflow. The volume up today was 83% for the NYSE and 91% for the NASDAQ. Here is a point I want to make ... I think we are due for a correction ... but that is me. It may not happen. We could see some sideways movement to form a base for the market and then see a huge move to the upside. If we have a close over 9,050 on the Dow with strong volume ... then we may very well be in a new bull market. We will just have to wait and see.
Just to keep things in perspective here is a chart of the weekly Dow. From this vantage point things look overbought for the near term. Then again look at 2006 ... they stayed overbought for a few months. I point this out to show that there is no certainty in the direction of the market based solely on technical indicators.

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