Monday, June 1, 2009

Stock Market Update - June 1, 2009

The market was up today ... up a lot today. I do admit that today was a surprise at the move early on this morning. I do believe we may see higher prices now for some time to come. The downward correction is now over for the time being I believe unless the government or something else occurs in the market to derail the rally. I do want to point out a few items. If this was a broad based rally ... why then did the banking index actually close down today. Why did the Financial sector send almost a billion dollars in cash outflows today ... and it wasn't Citi being sold.

Also, look at the volume on the Dow ... if this was a broad rally ... wouldn't the volume been added today on the Dow. Last week I did point out twice the only thing that kept me worrying about how far the correction was going to go was the money flow cycle phasing of the Dow. Note the blue line above ... it has bottomed as of last week and now is headed back up. This suggests that money is being added to the market ... if that is true it is going to be hard for the market to rollover. Also, we are still awaiting the sell off in the dollar. Another quick point ... look at the indicator below the volume. It is a modified 5 day RSI indicator ... it has bottomed and is now moving up. The 5 day RSI, the tick data (indicator below the price chart) and the money flow (blue line with the price chart) all point to some strength in the coming days ahead ... this is not to say the market can go down if it so desires. Keep stops pretty close so any gains do not evaporate if the market turns.

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