Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Stock Market Update - June 16, 2009

Volume was still below par today. We did have a distribution day for the Dow with lower prices on higher volume from the day before.

Here is a chart of volatility. It has picked up with the last two down days on the market. The Frye indicator (green line) has it starting a move up from a low via a cycle standpoint ... this simply means we could see further price weakness in the days ahead.

Money flow line (blue line) is still moving down. Generally as long as this occurs from a peak ... prices will remain weak. Be warned this can change at anytime ... its just an indicator on the current trend direction. Most of the price indicators are neutral at this point ... which means that price can move lower based on the price trend indicators. I would have thought that we would have had more of an up day on the Dow rather than about an hour or so after yesterday's 90% down volume day. The dollar was down today and gold was up ... but the market was still down ... this is not good for the market ... if the dollar was weak then the market should have shown some strength in my opinion. This is not a good sign. Today's money flow was slightly favorable for the overall market and the NYSE has another large down volume day with 80% ... the last two days have spelled a large breadth of selling. I know that QID did not reach $32.50 but it did reach $32.62 ... I hope if you were going to short the market you did make the trade at this level. I would continue to hold stops around the $31.00 mark at this point.

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