Sunday, July 5, 2009

Stock Market Update - July 2, 2009

The Dollar was the culprit behind the downside in Gold, Oil and the Dow on Friday. We will have some choppy action I believe over the next few days ... we may have a large down day and then some light action either way then a large up day. I don't know how much conviction either way the Dollar has over the next couple of days. However, based on the above indicators ... the green line ... we should see the Dollar hold and possible strengthen over the intermediate term.
This is an hourly chart of the Dow and does it look sick. Based on the above green line which is an indicator of price it still looks like we have some more downward pressure over the next few days. I would not step in front of this bus just yet ... even on a short term basis.

Here is the Dow daily chart. The blue line which measures money flow has moved its way back up to the top of the range ... on a daily basis two items are now going to be working against the Dow ... the green line which is an indicator of the intermediate direction of price is pointed down and the blue line which measures money flow into the market is topping ... this could be a lethal combination for the market over the next few weeks unless the Federal Government steps in with some type of market intervention. Trading of Thursday we had very light volume on the NYSE and it was a 93% down volume day. Also, money flow was $1.5 billion out on Thursday with Financials leading the way on the outflow.

This is a weekly view of the Dow. Still pointed down by all indicators. I would not fight the prevailing trend. Keep your stops tight if you are long.

No comments:

Post a Comment