Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Stock Market Update - August 12, 2009

Short term for the Dow the primary trend indicator has turned back up (green line). Also, the tick data has been positive (blue line below the price chart).

Here is the daily picture for the Dow. The blue line with the price has cycled to the bottom and looks to be making a bottom ... if the cash flow indicator moves back up and if the dollar continues to weaken this will be a positive for stocks ... it should support or increase values in the near term. Today we had a small inflow of cash for the broader market and we had a 79% volume up day for the NYSE. I would not be surprised to see price strengthen in the next few days based on the indicators on the daily chart.
I do have a few issues ... one being if this really was a new Bull market ... wouldn't volume be a bit stronger? I would like to see broad participation of investors. I admit we have had a great run since March and the market has more than beat my expectations ... but I still would like to see some volume.


We are also seeing a divergence in the percentage of stock over their respective 50 moving average. Plus the percentage of investors that are bullish on the NYSE is close to 80% ... this is the highest ever since the measurement started in 1987. This could be very positive for the market for a while ... the last next to highest reading was early in 2004.

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