Monday, August 3, 2009

Stock Market Update - August 3, 2009

Everything on the hourly chart for the Dow is overbought. I know I'm sounding like a broken record ... but as long as the dollar keeps moving lower ... we are going to see strength in equities near term. As for the long term the price of gold, oil and other commodities will continue to gain. Next summer we could see $100 oil easily if the dollar continues lower and $150 in 2011 if demand picks up overseas coupled with a lower dollar. What do you think that's going to do for a economic recovery?

Daily chart for the Dow ... overbought. Today we had an 88% up volume day for the NYSE and the broader market had a cash inflow of over $2.3 billion. The Dow has been up something like 16 days out of the last 21 days of trading. I must admit this is going to be interesting to see how this is all going to shake out. Higher oil prices with a declining dollar and a recovering global economy. Higher interest rates are coming to the U.S. as well as higher taxes to pay for the socialization of businesses here. I guess ... what does it matter as long as the U.S. government has paper to fill the printing presses to print dollars.

As long as this remains the same (downward) ... oil will move higher and so will gold. Equities will remain strong in the near term until the bill for all this comes due. If oil moves above $120 and stays for an extended period of time ... we will see a double dip recession.

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