Sunday, September 13, 2009

Stock Market Update - September 11, 2009

Money flow has cycled to the bottom and so have most of the other short term indicators. The green line which is the primary indicator for price is overbought but I think in the coming hours of trading we should see some strength ... it may not lost long but this oversold condition must be addressed in some manner.

The daily chart of the Dow is showing that most of the indicators are overbought ... remember these things can stay overbought for sometime. With all the liquidity moving into the market it is going to be hard to short this ... but I would be on my toes to do so because most of the metrics for the market look overbought. Friday we had a 53% down volume day and an outflow of cash on the major markets.

As long as the dollar is headed down in an orderly fashion this should be a boost for equities especially for overseas investors. However, I'm beginning to think the dollar does not move down in an orderly manner moves to a crash scenario then we could have problems in equities and in the bond market.

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