Thursday, January 7, 2010

Stock Market Update - January 7, 2010

Based on the hourly charts we should have another push up for the Dow.

The daily chart is showing a short term top. Money flow has topped ... and looks to move back down. This is the primary trend for the market.
Roll Tide Roll!!! Beat Texas!!!

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Stock Market Update - January 5, 2010

We may see some more strength in the hourly chart.

The daily chart looks overbought. The money flow has cycled back to the top. My bet is that we will see some sideways movement over the next few weeks and a seasonal bottom in March and then the market will move to higher highs ... slowly.
Roll Tide Roll .... Go Bama Go!!!

Sunday, December 20, 2009

Stock Market Update - December 18, 2009

Money flow is peaking and is expected to turn down at some point very soon. Also, the price indicator (green line) is moving towards its cycle low. I would expect to see some type of weakness on the hourly Dow chart near term (the daily chart confirms) but once the money flow bottoms again ... we may see both indicators move in tandem back up.

The actual money flow indicator has turned back down. Only time will tell where its going to go. With the hourly money flow at its cycle top ... we may see some weakness on the daily Dow. With the holidays here its going to be tough to try and trade the market ... my advice would be ... take the next two weeks off.

Thursday, December 17, 2009

Stock Market Update - December 17, 2009

Money flow has hit bottom (blue line with price chart) and price looks to be catching up (green line with price chart). Based solely on the indicators we may be close to some type of bottom or we could bounce along here. I do admit ... I thought we would see some strength based on the primary trend with the Daily money flow for the Dow (see chart below).

Is money flow going to stop in its tracks and rollover here? Very possible ... as it looks we may be at the top for a market rollover. Jobless claims were up today ... this may be the cause for today's loss.

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Stock Market Update - December 16, 2009

The hourly chart for the Dow looks pretty hard to read to me ... some of the indicators look to be moving up like the money flow and the bottom price indicator (very bottom of the chart). However, the main price indicator and the tick data seem to be moving down.

The daily chart shows some strength ahead with the money flow moving up. Strength could mean prices moving up or support and moving sideways. Today we did have a negative cash flow for the broader market and the NYSE still posted an up volume day at around 53%. I would still have a long position at this point with tight stops to protect and short term profits.

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Stock Market Update - December 15, 2009

Money flow is back a the bottom of the cycle ... we should see some strength to come when the outflow is finished in the short term.

The daily Dow chart shows money flow has bottomed and big money agrees ... there was a ton of buying the ETF indexes today ... we had over $400 million inflow into SPY which measures the S&P 500. We did have an overall outflow of cash today in the broader market (see the above hourly chart) and we had a 65% down volume today on the NYSE.

Here is a snapshot of the dollar moving up. Short-term it looks overbought based solely on the indicators.

You can see the havoc the dollar has reaped on gold. I would have thought the same would have been done for equities ... that has not been the case ... so I must wonder out loud ... Equities may have another big move left that could occur over a longer period ahead of us.

Monday, December 14, 2009

Stock Market Update - December 14, 2009

Almost all indicators are in the oversold area for the hourly chart of the Dow.

Money flow for the daily chart has turned up. It is possible that we will see a Santa Rally. Money flow is now behind the market unless something derails it. Today we had some money inflow into the boarder market and we also had a 69% up volume day for the NYSE.