Stock Market Update - December 17, 2009

Money flow has hit bottom (blue line with price chart) and price looks to be catching up (green line with price chart). Based solely on the indicators we may be close to some type of bottom or we could bounce along here. I do admit ... I thought we would see some strength based on the primary trend with the Daily money flow for the Dow (see chart below).

Is money flow going to stop in its tracks and rollover here? Very possible ... as it looks we may be at the top for a market rollover. Jobless claims were up today ... this may be the cause for today's loss.

Stock Market Update - December 14, 2009

Almost all indicators are in the oversold area for the hourly chart of the Dow.

Money flow for the daily chart has turned up. It is possible that we will see a Santa Rally. Money flow is now behind the market unless something derails it. Today we had some money inflow into the boarder market and we also had a 69% up volume day for the NYSE.

Stock Market Update - December 11, 2009

Money flow is pointed up for the hourly Dow chart. All the shorter term price indicators at the bottom have peaked or are close to peaking. We could see some more upside or sideways movement in price based on the money flow indicator (blue line).

The main trend for stocks are about to turn up ... both money flow (blue line with price) and the bottom two indicators (short term measure of price) have both bottomed and at looking to turn up. The only question is how strong will this support be in terms of price appreciation? Only time will tell. I just think the market is going to move up from here while we will see some divergences in sector indexes. Friday we had an up volume day on the NYSE with 66%.

Stock Market Update - December 10, 2009

Near term for the Dow hourly chart we are overbought. Money flow indicator has rolled over and the two lower indexes that measure price on the shorter term have topped. The downside may be limited due to the fact that the Dow daily chart is showing the money flow is close to a bottom. This is not to say that we will not or could not see some type of real weakness in the near term.

Money flow (blue line with price) is close to a bottom. Today on the NYSE we had a 62% up volume day with money inflow for the broader market. The two bottom short term indicators point to a bottom in price of some type could be close at hand.

Stock Market Update - December 1, 2009

I believe we are close to a very short term top on the hourly chart. However ....

The daily chart is showing us something different. Money flow has cycled to the bottom (blue line with price). This tells me that we may see some money move into the market over the next few days. This should hold prices firm or increase the price of equities. Today we did have an up volume day for the NYSE with 82% of the volume traded. Also, there was a net positive cash inflow into the broader market.

Stock Market Update - November 30, 2009

Hourly chart for the Dow shows money flow has cycled back down. We should see some price support over the next few sessions. Watch out the the price indicator is pointed down.

Today was an up day for the Dow ... we did have 57% of the NYSE volume that was up in price. The money flow indicator is looking to close to a bottom ... this can occur over the next couple of days.

The dollar made a new low over Thanksgiving Holiday. This confirms in my opinion that we are headed lower and the stock market should still see some support.

Stock Market Update - November 24, 2009

Nothing has really changed and I do not expect them to change this week. However, next week is a different story. The daily chart below shows money flow heading down into its cycle low.

This will be my last post until Monday night of next week for Monday's stock market update.

Stock Market Update - November 23, 2009

Does this Dow chart look familiar ... if it didn't have the dates attached I could have passed it off as today's chart. The market bottom of 2002 and 2003 looks very much like the market bottom of 2008 and 2009 ... to be exact ... it is exactly the same to date. It is uncanny of how history repeats itself. There was a low made in October and the final low made in March of 2003.

Fast forward to today. We had a low in October/November and made the final low in March ... down to the same week of the calendar in March. And look at the bounce ... we had some summer weakness just as the market did in 2003 (as expected in every summer market) and then we were off to the races once again in 2003 and again in 2009. I know what you are thinking ... what occurred after November in 2003. Go to the next chart ...

The market busted out into a higher rally until March 2004 before we had a correction that really lasted for about 7 months before the market made higher highs later in the year.

I'm not saying that this is going to occur again today ... what I am saying you just need to keep this in the back of your head when you are making trading decisions. A couple of points ... we have come further and faster than the 2003 market rally with higher unemployment and a really bad housing market but with lower interest rates. The economy is different today than it was 6 years ago ... much different. But I would not be surprised to see if the market does the unexpected and move higher ... much higher before it cools off. That would surprise most everyone and have others to push all their cash in over the winter and a leaving no other buyers for the spring market. Today, most everyone is calling for a 10-15% correction ... and the market always has a way of out foxing them.

Stock Market Update - November 20, 2009

The hourly chart for the Dow shows money flow (blue line) and the price indicator (green line) moving back down into the cycle low for the short term.

We may have a few more days of price weakness based on the money flow indicator (blue line with price). Only question is how much weakness?

The dollar is looking to put in some type of bottom ... not sure if it is a short term or longer term bottom.

I wanted to point out a few charts for gold. Gold has not reached new highs when priced in Euros. This is something we should watch and may point to the direction for a full turn in the dollar when the price of gold meets its last high priced in Euro ... this would be a double top.

Same goes for gold priced in yen. It has not made a new high since 20008. This will be interesting when/if gold reaches the old high ... will a double top be put in and a turn in the dollar be the news of the day ... if so equities will weaken.

Stock Market Update - November 13, 2009

The hourly chart of the Dow shows money flow heading back up into the top of the cycle. We may be near a point to short the market very near term here.

The daily chart shows the Dow money flow reaching the top of the cycle ... this is the setup you would like to see ... a move in price late in the cycle for both hourly and daily with corresponding money flow moves topping. Friday we had a 69% up volume day for the NYSE and flat money flow for the broader market.

The dollar was down which gave the market its strength.

Something for the gold bugs here ... the price of gold in Euros has not exceeded its high this past February. Something to note ... we may see a double top in the market.

Stock Market Update - November 12, 2009

We should have a bounce sometime soon. The hourly chart is oversold for the short term.

On the daily chart the money flow is almost back to the top of the range ... we would need to see the hourly money flow to move back up to the top and look to move back down before we need to even think about the daily money flow line to move back down. Today on for the NYSE we had an 85% volume down day and we has a slight money outflow.

The downward pressure for the market was the dollar.

Stock Market Update - November 11, 2009

Money flow indicator has bottomed on the hourly chart for the Dow. This does not mean the index will automatically move up from here ... just that it has bottomed on the modified ... the actual is still hanging around the mid point of the cycle. The green line for price is about to roll over ... I think we will need a couple more money flow cycles up and down before we can think of the market truly rolling over somewhat.

Money flow for the daily Dow is just above the mid point. Could be another week +/- a day or two before we see some kind of topping. Today was a 65% up volume day for the NYSE and we did see a positive inflow of cash.

The real question is ... what is the dollar going to do ... and when?

Stock Market Update - November 10, 2009

We are in a down trend in money flow for the hourly charts. Should only last a few more hours.

Daily money flow trend is still up as well as the primary price indicator (green line). Today we had a 57% down day for the NYSE and the broader market had a small outflow of cash.

Dollar was down today. We are now at a major turning point for the dollar that will have implications for the market for months to come.

Stock Market Update - November 9, 2009

Price indicator (green line) and money flow have moved back to the top of the cycle.

Money flow is pointed up ... we may see some weakness soon ... we had a 94% up volume day on the NYSE and with modest inflow of money.

The reason for today's bullishness ... you guess it the dollar. I know I sound like a broken record ... but this is not going to change until the dollar reverses. We could see a double top in the Dow back to 15,000 in the next 12 to 18 months if this continues. By the way this marks my 250th blog posting this evening.

Stock Market Update - November 6, 2009

The hourly chart is showing money flow and price has cycled back to the top of the range. Also, other indicators at the bottom of this chart are showing topping divergences. The tick data is also moving sideways ... I wonder how weak the market really is on this latest move up in price.

All indicators are pointed up ... on a daily basis we are showing strength ahead ... we MAY see a few more days of price support but it still all going to come down to what the dollar is going to do and go in the mean time. On Friday money flow and up/down volume were basically even on the market.

Will the dollar make a small double bottom here and move back up or is the downward trend back in play?

Stock Market Update - November 5, 2009

We got a pop today in price with the money flow line moving down.

This current rally should last a little ... money flow and the other short term indicators are at their respective cycle bottom except price (green line) and the tick data. Today we had an 85% up volume day on the NYSE.

The dollar was behind today's rally ... it was down.

Stock Market Update - November 4, 2009

Money flow has peaked and looks to be turning down. We should see some more weakness in the short term on the hourly chart for the Dow.

The money flow has turned back up for the Dow daily chart ... the only question is how strong will this upward push is going to be? Today we had a 53% up volume day and an inflow of cash on the broader market.

The dollar was down today ... this will be interesting to see how long the push down is going to last. Look at the two short term indicators at the bottom of the chart ... both have topped and looks to be headed lower. If the dollar declines ... this should give some support to stocks.

Stock Market Update - November 2, 2009

Money flow is at the bottom of the cycle ... and the tick data in the chart under price looks to have hit a bottom as well. We should see price move up.

Daily chart also shows the money has extended into a bottom as well. All the other indicators have bottomed. The one indicator that still has not is the price (green line with price chart). Today we had a 53% up volume day on the NYSE.

The market was up today because of the dollar ... it was down.