Thursday, August 13, 2009

Stock Market Update - August 13, 2009

Very near term the hourly Dow chart is overbought based on the bottom indicators. However, the primary indicator is still pointed up (green line with price).

On the daily chart the blue line (money flow) is taking its dear time bottoming and moving back up. I believe based on this we may get one more push up in price (maybe more) before the market cools for a little. I do believe the best thing is for the market to go through about a 10% to 15% correction here for a few weeks or months before making higher highs. Today the NYSE had a 74% up volume day and money flow was basically even on the broader market. We did have some selling on strength today for the QQQQ's ETF.

It is all going to come down to this ... how much more money is the Treasury going print and how much more money is the Fed going to create and lend (today its done by a few strokes of some keys on a PC vs. the old fashion way of printing it). If the dollar continues lower ... then the stock market will maintain or move higher and so will commodities.

A day or so ago I made the recommendation for ZSL (double short silver) ... if you bought this between $7.25 - $8.25 keep your stops around $6.73. If you have not bought the ETF ... I had rather wait now and see what the dollar is going to do over the next few days and maybe weeks. The dollar is going to have to rally for silver to decline. It looked that the dollar was going to do that at the first of the week. Just a note ... crude oil inventories have been building now for several weeks here in the U.S. ... however price are still holding firm to increasing. This shows just how weak the dollar is today.

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